Arkansas Rice Update 2025Jarrod Hardke & Scott Stiles

Some good things to say about progress, some bad things to say about the market.  That’s about it in a short update this week.  There has been little happening over the past week other than draining rice and trying to shift gears into harvest.  With the majority of rice in the state planted mid-April and beyond this year, most is just starting to get harvest-ready, meaning a major increase in harvest progress may be coming next week, weather-permitting.

“Weather-permitting” may seem a strange term to use right now given how long it’s been hot and dry, but a major drop in temperatures beginning Monday with highs in the 80s and 70s(!) also includes some rain chances.  Honestly it seems a hair untimely, but it may be just the slowdown we need so that rice grain moisture doesn’t fall out too quickly and put us where we were last year harvesting extremely dry, brittle grain.

Milling yields to date have not been great, but better than last year and showing some improvement.  As we get into the major wave of harvest with milder harvest weather, maybe it will improve some more.  I’m still not expecting phenomenal milling – all those hot nights and days still have an impact on grain (chalk and thin kernels) which make grains weaker – but being able to harvest grain at more optimal moisture could reduce some of the problems.

On grain yields – still some excellent yields being reported, and some not so great, and all points in between.  The variability continues…

Let us know if we can help.

Scott Stiles

Ouch!  After a late session collapse Wednesday, the rice market is still trying to find its footing.  Managed money was holding a record net short position in rice two weeks ago.  A small portion of that was liquidated last week.  That turned the market higher at least until the August 12th USDA reporting.  As we mentioned last week, NASS found 52,000 more acres of long-grain and that bumped new crop production a bit higher.  Plus, beginning stocks were increased, which is a reflection of the lousy export demand.  With nothing positive from a fundamental standpoint, the market made a “key reversal down” August 12th.

With continued weak export demand and heavy old crop stocks still hanging over the market, it appears the speculative short position increased again this week.  We’ll find out Friday afternoon in the Commitment of Traders report.  As of this writing Friday morning, rice futures have slipped $1/cwt since last Friday’s close and the November contract now trades at the lowest point since December 2020.  Harvest is marching north, and cash rice prices have slipped below $5/bu. at many locations this week.

Rice Stocks

Reality hit hard Wednesday with NASS’ Rice Stocks report.  The report confirmed what we already knew: growers were still sitting on a lot of old crop rice.  For the U.S., rough rice stocks in all positions (on-farm and off-farm) on August 1, 2025 totaled 44.6 million hundredweight (cwt), up 35 percent from the total on August 1, 2024.

Arkansas producers were holding 4.29 million cwt. (over 9.5 million bushels) in on-farm storage as of August 1.  We thought that might be a record amount.  The highest in recent years was 4.5 million cwt. in 2019.  This year is, however, the second highest August 1 stocks in the last 20 years for Arkansas.

Export Sales

For the week ending August 14, there were no sales of long-grain rough rice.  However, the U.S. did have a few decent sales of long-grain milled rice last week, with 8,100 tons sold to Haiti and 9,958 tons sold to Saudi Arabia, with smaller volume sales to Mexico and Canada.  New crop rough rice sales are off to a very slow start, already 59% behind last year.  Long-grain milled rice sales are trailing last year by 11 percent in the early weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year.

U.S. Rice Harvest

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions advanced the U.S. rice harvest ahead of the 5-year average in Monday’s Crop Progress.  Harvest in Texas was 57% complete as of August 17th.  Louisiana had nearly 2/3 of their crop harvested.  Arkansas’ was 4% harvested as of last Sunday; behind last year but on par with the average pace.

Arkansas Rice Update 2025Jarrod Hardke & Scott Stiles

Some good things to say about progress, some bad things to say about the market.  That’s about it in a short update this week.  There has been little happening over the past week other than draining rice and trying to shift gears into harvest.  With the majority of rice in the state planted mid-April and beyond this year, most is just starting to get harvest-ready, meaning a major increase in harvest progress may be coming next week, weather-permitting.

“Weather-permitting” may seem a strange term to use right now given how long it’s been hot and dry, but a major drop in temperatures beginning Monday with highs in the 80s and 70s(!) also includes some rain chances.  Honestly it seems a hair untimely, but it may be just the slowdown we need so that rice grain moisture doesn’t fall out too quickly and put us where we were last year harvesting extremely dry, brittle grain.

Milling yields to date have not been great, but better than last year and showing some improvement.  As we get into the major wave of harvest with milder harvest weather, maybe it will improve some more.  I’m still not expecting phenomenal milling – all those hot nights and days still have an impact on grain (chalk and thin kernels) which make grains weaker – but being able to harvest grain at more optimal moisture could reduce some of the problems.

On grain yields – still some excellent yields being reported, and some not so great, and all points in between.  The variability continues…

Let us know if we can help.

Scott Stiles

Ouch!  After a late session collapse Wednesday, the rice market is still trying to find its footing.  Managed money was holding a record net short position in rice two weeks ago.  A small portion of that was liquidated last week.  That turned the market higher at least until the August 12th USDA reporting.  As we mentioned last week, NASS found 52,000 more acres of long-grain and that bumped new crop production a bit higher.  Plus, beginning stocks were increased, which is a reflection of the lousy export demand.  With nothing positive from a fundamental standpoint, the market made a “key reversal down” August 12th.

With continued weak export demand and heavy old crop stocks still hanging over the market, it appears the speculative short position increased again this week.  We’ll find out Friday afternoon in the Commitment of Traders report.  As of this writing Friday morning, rice futures have slipped $1/cwt since last Friday’s close and the November contract now trades at the lowest point since December 2020.  Harvest is marching north, and cash rice prices have slipped below $5/bu. at many locations this week.

Rice Stocks

Reality hit hard Wednesday with NASS’ Rice Stocks report.  The report confirmed what we already knew: growers were still sitting on a lot of old crop rice.  For the U.S., rough rice stocks in all positions (on-farm and off-farm) on August 1, 2025 totaled 44.6 million hundredweight (cwt), up 35 percent from the total on August 1, 2024.

Arkansas producers were holding 4.29 million cwt. (over 9.5 million bushels) in on-farm storage as of August 1.  We thought that might be a record amount.  The highest in recent years was 4.5 million cwt. in 2019.  This year is, however, the second highest August 1 stocks in the last 20 years for Arkansas.

Export Sales

For the week ending August 14, there were no sales of long-grain rough rice.  However, the U.S. did have a few decent sales of long-grain milled rice last week, with 8,100 tons sold to Haiti and 9,958 tons sold to Saudi Arabia, with smaller volume sales to Mexico and Canada.  New crop rough rice sales are off to a very slow start, already 59% behind last year.  Long-grain milled rice sales are trailing last year by 11 percent in the early weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year.

U.S. Rice Harvest

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions advanced the U.S. rice harvest ahead of the 5-year average in Monday’s Crop Progress.  Harvest in Texas was 57% complete as of August 17th.  Louisiana had nearly 2/3 of their crop harvested.  Arkansas’ was 4% harvested as of last Sunday; behind last year but on par with the average pace.